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The Deepest Frontier A Global Scramble for the Ocean's Last Minerals

Wednesday, 12 November 2025 06:01

Summary

A new industrial revolution is unfolding four kilometres beneath the ocean surface, driven by the global demand for critical minerals essential to the clean energy transition. The deep seabed, particularly the vast Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the Pacific, holds trillions of tonnes of polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, and manganese, metals vital for electric vehicle batteries and renewable infrastructure. This pursuit has ignited a complex geopolitical and environmental crisis, pitting the economic ambitions of nations and corporations against the fragile, largely unexplored ecosystems of the abyssal plain. The International Seabed Authority, the United Nations-mandated body responsible for regulating this 'Area' beyond national jurisdiction, has been forced into a regulatory crisis by the small Pacific island nation of Nauru, which triggered a two-year rule compelling the adoption of a mining code. Meanwhile, Norway has become the first country to authorise deep-sea mining exploration within its own Arctic waters, setting a controversial precedent. The United States, not a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, has also moved to accelerate its own seabed mineral industry, further fracturing the international legal framework. Scientists warn that the resulting habitat destruction, sediment plumes, and noise pollution will cause irreversible biodiversity loss, threatening the ocean's role in global carbon cycling and food security.

The Mineral Imperative

The global transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy systems has created an unprecedented demand for critical raw materials . Metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese are essential components in the production of electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines . Projections from the International Energy Agency indicate that the clean energy sector's demand for these minerals will account for an increasing share of the total global demand over the next two decades . Specifically, the demand for nickel and cobalt is expected to rise by 60 to 70 per cent, while the need for lithium could increase by nearly 90 per cent . This looming mineral insecurity has driven governments and corporations to seek new sources beyond traditional terrestrial mining, which faces challenges from declining ore grades, rising costs, and stricter environmental regulations . The deep ocean floor has emerged as the new frontier, holding deposits that are staggeringly abundant and often of a higher quality than those found on land . The deep-sea mineral resources are estimated to be vast enough to meet global consumption for hundreds or even thousands of years . However, this pursuit is highly contentious, as a growing body of evidence suggests that deep-sea mining is not strictly necessary for the green transition, especially if circular economy strategies and material substitution are prioritised . Furthermore, the potential influx of marine-derived minerals could depress global prices for copper, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, thereby risking the export earnings of countries that rely heavily on land-based mining of these metals .

The Clarion-Clipperton Crucible

The primary focus of the nascent deep-sea mining industry is the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a vast abyssal plain spanning 4.5 million square kilometres between Hawaii and Mexico in the central Pacific Ocean . This area, which is roughly the size of the continental United States, is home to trillions of potato-sized polymetallic nodules . These nodules, which form over millions of years, are rich in commercially valuable metals, including nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese . The International Seabed Authority, the autonomous intergovernmental body established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), administers this area, which lies beyond the limits of national jurisdiction . The ISA has already issued 19 exploration licences for mining within the CCZ, with the total exploration area covering approximately one million square kilometres . The deep-sea environment of the CCZ, at depths of 4,000 to 5,500 metres, is far from barren . The nodules themselves often serve as the only hard substrate on the soft clay seabed, providing essential habitat and anchor points for a diverse array of creatures, including sponges, sea anemones, and octopods . Scientific expeditions have continually underscored the ecological significance of these habitats, with one study in 2023 alone discovering 5,000 new species in the CCZ . The deep-sea mining process involves scraping the top layer of the ocean floor to collect the nodules, pumping them to a surface vessel, and then discharging the waste water and fine sediment back into the ocean .

The Regulatory Vacuum

The International Seabed Authority is mandated to regulate all mineral-related activities in the international seabed area, known as 'the Area' . While the ISA has established a regulatory regime for exploration activities, the crucial exploitation regulations, or the 'Mining Code,' have been under development for over a decade . This regulatory uncertainty was dramatically accelerated by the small Pacific island nation of Nauru, which has a surface area of just 21 square kilometres and a population of approximately 11,500 people . On 25 June 2021, Nauru formally notified the ISA of its intention to submit an application for an exploitation contract, thereby triggering a provision known as the 'two-year rule' . This rule, contained in the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of UNCLOS, obliged the ISA Council to finalise and adopt the exploitation regulations within 24 months, with the deadline expiring in July 2023 . Nauru's action was taken on behalf of its sponsored entity, Nauru Ocean Resources Inc. (NORI), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Canadian-based mining firm, The Metals Company (TMC) . The invocation of the rule meant that if the ISA failed to adopt the regulations by the deadline, it would still be required to consider and provisionally approve a plan of work for exploitation based on whatever draft rules were in place at the time . The deadline passed without the finalisation of the comprehensive Mining Code, leaving a significant legal and environmental vacuum .

The Arctic Precedent

The international regulatory crisis in the Pacific was compounded by a unilateral move in the Arctic, where Norway became the first country in the world to approve deep-sea mining exploration within its own national jurisdiction . On 9 January 2024, the Norwegian Parliament, the Storting, voted 80-20 in favour of opening a large section of its seabed to mineral exploration . The approved area, which is mostly in the Arctic region and is larger than the United Kingdom at approximately 280,000 square kilometres, is believed to hold significant deposits of cobalt, lithium, and scandium . This decision was made despite explicit warnings from the Norwegian Environmental Agency, which cautioned against the potential for 'significant and irreversible consequences for the marine environment' . The move drew immediate and strong international criticism, with the European Union and the United Kingdom advocating for a temporary ban on deep-sea mining due to environmental concerns . Environmental organisations, including Greenpeace and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), condemned the vote, with WWF-Norway subsequently taking legal action against the government, citing an insufficient impact assessment . While the vote only approved the exploration phase, requiring a subsequent parliamentary vote for commercial exploitation, critics argue that the decision sets a dangerous international precedent by prioritising economic diversification over scientific caution in a vulnerable ecosystem .

The Geopolitical Fault Line

The deep-sea mineral race has quickly become a new front in geopolitical competition, particularly between the United States and China . China currently holds five of the 30 deep-sea exploration contracts issued by the ISA, more than any other country, and dominates the global terrestrial market for rare earth elements . The United States, however, has never ratified the UNCLOS treaty and is not a member of the ISA, which has historically excluded it from the international regulatory framework . This dynamic shifted in April 2025 when the Trump administration signed an executive order to accelerate the nation's seabed mineral industry, authorising the exploration and exploitation of deep-sea resources in international waters under US legislation . Days after this order, The Metals Company (TMC) announced it had applied for a commercial exploitation license under US regulatory authority, effectively seeking to bypass the ISA process . TMC, whose CEO Gerard Barron has framed the minerals as a strategic asset for the US, is pursuing this unconventional path to secure a license for its NORI-D block in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone . This move has been criticised by both the ISA and China as a potential violation of international law, as only the ISA is mandated to permit mining in international waters . The geopolitical tension is rooted in the strategic importance of critical minerals for military technology and energy security, with the ocean floor emerging as a new battleground for dominance .

The Irreversible Ecological Cost

The most profound and potentially irreversible consequences of deep-sea mining are ecological . The deep ocean, which constitutes over 90 per cent of the biosphere, is home to a significant proportion of Earth's biodiversity, much of which remains undiscovered . Scientists warn that the direct physical destruction of the seafloor habitat, particularly the removal of polymetallic nodules, will result in the permanent loss of unique and ecologically important species on multi-generational timescales . The process of strip-mining the seabed and pumping the ore slurry to the surface creates two major forms of pollution: noise and sediment plumes . Noise pollution from industrial machinery and the transport of ore can cause physiological and behavioural stress to marine mammals and other species that rely on sound and echolocation . More critically, the discharge of wastewater and fine sediment back into the ocean forms mid-water plumes that can travel hundreds of kilometres . A study from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa found that these plumes could disrupt the midwater 'twilight zone' (200 to 1,500 metres below the surface), a critical ecosystem that supports the ocean's food web . The nutrient-poor sediment clouds the water, replacing the organic detritus that sustains life and creating a 'junk food' effect that could starve zooplankton and micronekton . This disruption could cascade through the entire food chain, ultimately impacting commercially important species like tuna, seabirds, and marine mammals . Furthermore, deep-sea mining risks disturbing carbon-rich sediments, potentially interfering with the deep ocean's vital role in carbon sequestration and climate regulation .

Conclusion

The rush to the deep seabed represents a critical juncture where the urgent demands of the energy transition collide with the precautionary principle of environmental stewardship. The failure of the International Seabed Authority to finalise a comprehensive regulatory framework, even after the Nauru-triggered deadline, has created a legal void that is being exploited by corporate and national interests . The unilateral actions of Norway in the Arctic and the United States in the Pacific, both moving outside or against the spirit of the UNCLOS framework, threaten to fracture the international governance of the high seas . The central, unresolved question remains whether the world can afford to industrialise the last great wilderness on Earth for minerals that may not be strictly necessary, especially when the ecological damage is widely predicted to be irreversible . The deep seabed is legally defined as the 'common heritage of humankind,' yet the current trajectory suggests that its resources are on the verge of being claimed by a few powerful states and their corporate partners, with the global community bearing the environmental cost . The coming years will determine if the international system can assert its authority to protect the ocean's life support systems or if the pursuit of critical minerals will irrevocably alter the planet's largest ecosystem.

References

  1. Beneath the Surface: The Geopolitical Implications of Shifting Deep Sea Mining Regulation

    Supports the geopolitical competition between the US and China, China's dominance in REEs, and the US not being a UNCLOS signatory.

  2. The Geopolitics of Deep-Sea Mining and Green Technologies

    Provides context on the demand for critical minerals for green technologies, the role of the ISA, and China's leading position in exploration contracts.

  3. The impact of deep-sea mining on biodiversity, climate and human cultures | IUCN NL

    Supports the environmental debate, the irreversible nature of biodiversity loss, and the types of minerals sought (nickel, manganese, lithium).

  4. Deep sea mining poses a high risk to mining economies - Planet Tracker

    Supports the economic risk to land-based mining economies and the argument that deep-sea mining may not be required for the green transition.

  5. Geopolitics of the deep sea: The ocean's hidden war - Diplo Foundation

    Supports the US non-ratification of UNCLOS, the Trump administration's executive order, and the ISA's failure to finalise the Mining Code.

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    Supports the demand for critical minerals for low-carbon technologies and the geopolitical tensions arising from the lack of a unified regulatory framework.

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    Supports the geopolitical conflict and the call for a global moratorium on deep-sea mining.

  8. Seabed mining: A $20 trillion opportunity | Arthur D. Little

    Supports the economic potential of seabed mining and the abundance of deposits compared to land reserves.

  9. Deep-Sea Mining–Article 1: What Is Happening With Deep-Sea Mining? - K&L Gates

    Supports the environmental risks (biodiversity loss, plumes, noise) and Norway's January 2024 decision to authorise exploration.

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    Supports the economic risks to developing countries and the call for a moratorium.

  11. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone - The Pew Charitable Trusts

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    Details the Norwegian Parliament's vote on 9 January 2024, the size of the approved area (280,000 sq km), and the opposition from the Norwegian Environmental Agency and international groups.

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    Confirms the date of the Norwegian vote (January 9, 2024) and the opposition from the EU and UK.

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    Provides background on The Metals Company (TMC), its former name (DeepGreen Metals), its subsidiaries (NORI), and its focus on polymetallic nodules in the CCZ.

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    Supports the specific environmental impact of sediment plumes on the midwater 'twilight zone,' the 'junk food' effect on zooplankton and micronekton, and the potential impact on the food chain.

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    Details the Trump administration's April 2025 executive order, TMC's subsequent application under US jurisdiction, and CEO Gerard Barron's framing of the minerals as a strategic asset.

  17. The Metals Company Applied to the U.S. for a Deep-Sea Mining License | Pulitzer Center

    Confirms TMC's application to the US, the bypassing of the ISA, and the criticism from the ISA and China regarding international law.

  18. The Metals Co. posts first deep-sea resource - The Northern Miner

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  19. Nauru requests the International Seabed Authority Council to adopt rules and regulations within two years

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  20. Two-year Countdown for Deep Seabed Mining

    Confirms the two-year rule deadline (July 2023), Nauru's size and population, and NORI's connection to TMC.

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    Confirms the ISA's failure to finalise regulations by the July 2023 deadline and the ongoing negotiations.

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    Supports the IEA's demand forecasts for critical minerals and the ISA's mandate to protect the marine environment.

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    Supports the scientific consensus on irreversible biodiversity loss, the deep ocean's role in the biosphere and climate regulation, and the specific impacts of sediment plumes and noise.

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    Supports the scale of habitat devastation (8,000–9,000 sq km per operation) and the impact on carbon-rich sediments.

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    Supports the comparison of CCZ reserves to global terrestrial reserves and the general environmental impacts (seabed destruction, noise, plumes).

  26. WWF report: deep seabed mining is an avoidable environmental disaster

    Supports the argument that deep-sea mining is an avoidable disaster and the call for a moratorium based on the need for a circular economy.

  27. Norway votes for deep-sea mining despite environmental concerns - The Guardian

    Confirms the Norwegian vote details (80-20), the size of the area (280,000 sq km), and the opposition from environmental groups.